The Vienna-based European Space Policy Institute (ESPI), which turned 20 this September, has created a comprehensive vision for Europe's future in space. The ESPI2040 is more abstract than a space strategy, but it is also more concrete than a simplistic vision, as the study sets out the key areas and actions for Europe in space up to 2040. The objective of the action plan is to make Europe a truly key player in the space sector by 2040. Europe can no longer lag behind the United States and China in the realm of space. If it does so, Europe’s loss of competitiveness will have severe consequences not only financially, but also politically and strategically. ESPI2040 aims to achieve the sustenance of geopolitical sovereignty while respecting economic growth, maintaining peace and taking into account the interests of future generations.
The action plan succinctly outlines Europe's challenges and its present in the space sector. Climate change, the rising number of armed conflicts and wars, and the obscurities of economic transitions will inevitably affect space activities. ESPI2040 identifies Europe's diminishing geopolitical relevance in the declining trends in wealth, trust and technological innovation. It cites as an example that Europe has lost trillions of euros by not playing a greater role in the development of the internet, chip manufacturing, semiconductor manufacturing and artificial intelligence. This also represents, how Europe has lost competitiveness not only compared to the United States and China, but also to India in this regard.
The ESPI2040 is written primarily to address decision-makers, economic and scientific stakeholders, and therefore has a strong focus on space regulation. It is not only an abstract vision portraying where Europe should be by 2040 if the desirable measures are taken, but it also enlists a series of small but continuous steps through appropriate regulation. The action plan states that such a series of steps would not only help to ensure the proper distribution of LEO (low Earth orbit), MEO (middle Earth orbit) and GEO (geostationary orbit) satellite orbits, but would also encourage the application of space-based innovation in other scientific fields. The ESPI2040 mission can be structurally broken down into the following elements:
1. Promoting European space policy on a global level
2. Facilitating an active forum for the analysis and discussion of European needs, capabilities, and long-term prospects in space activities
3. Developing approaches to European space policy
4. Making proposals and recommendations to European decision-makers and institutions
According to ESPI, the mission would make Europe responsible for the quarter of the aggregate activities of the entire space sector. The mission also includes targets for Europe to lead the way in sustainability, competitiveness in satellite technology and its applications, and space exploration. ESPI2040 aims to achieve its targets at the cost of 0.15% of the aggregate European GDP.
To achieve the mission and objectives outlined, ESPI2040 also sets out an agenda based on the engagement, research and education. The Action Plan is based on these three pillars, since it is through these areas that Europe's challenges can best be addressed.
A key objective of the engagement pillar is to develop a strong European voice in the space sector that will resonate positively with the rest of the world. As proposed by ESPI2040, all national parliaments of EU and ESA Member States should participate in the EISC (European Interparliamentary Space Conference - N.B. the EISC conference is organised by ESPI). The endeavour of raising Europe’s voice in space is of crucial importance, as European geopolitical sovereignty is at stake. European decision makers have to comprehend, that the space sector is not only of financial but of geopolitical and strategical importance. The United States and understood this during the years of the Cold War, even at times when direct investments did not show instant returns. Europe has to follow a path where it takes a closer look at the geopolitical and strategical importance of the space sector.
The research pillar supports European competitiveness through several sub-pillars. Space-based technologies can not only monitor the atmosphere and the lithosphere but can also lead to pioneering technical solutions to combat climate change through innovation. Space-related cyber security measures can also be applied to countering terrorism and disaster management. Further exploration of space could lead to new discoveries in astrophysics and quantum physics, which could prove useful in all fields. The action plan also sees space as an investment, as space technology developments will lead to greater technological hegemony. Finally, space will have several positive effects on the European economy, as industrial development, innovation, and employment will lead to greater competitiveness in Europe, thus also raising the strategical power of Europe.
The education pillar is also multi-focused. ESPI2040 explicitly aims to deliver space education to decision-makers and students in a way that is appropriate to each, while at the same time providing training opportunities for those working in the space industry. The education pillar thus plays a key role in the scientific and decision-making processes of the future.
Overall, the ESPI2040 presents a comprehensive action plan for the different European actors in the space sector. The vision is that Europe's competitiveness and sovereignty can be built on the basis of adequate engagement in decision making, research and education. This is the only way of not lagging behind the United States and China.
The ESPI2040 Action Plan is available in full at the following link:
https://www.espi.or.at/espi-2040/
Written by: Dudás Márk